FOOD ESTATE: INDONESIA FRAMEWORK FOR MITIGATION AND ANTICIPATION OF PROTRACTED WAR

 

Throughout the history of global conflict, one fundamental lesson repeatedly emerges: modern wars are not won solely on the battlefield, but also in the fields that produce food. States that fail to secure their domestic food supply inevitably face social instability, extreme inflation, and heightened national security vulnerabilities. It is within this context that Indonesia’s food estate policy should be understood—not merely as an agricultural project, but as an instrument for mitigating the risks of protracted warfare and global crises.

Modern Warfare and a New Weapon: Food

The Russia–Ukraine war since 2022 provides a clear example of how armed conflict directly affects the global food system. FAO data indicate that prior to the war, both countries accounted for more than 28% of global wheat exports. Disruptions to production and distribution immediately triggered double-digit increases in global food prices across many developing countries.

Similar dynamics can be observed in:

• Middle Eastern conflicts disrupting logistics routes in the Red Sea,
  
  

• Tensions in the South China Sea that threaten Asian trade corridors,
  
  

• Economic warfare and sanctions that turn food into a tool of geopolitical pressure.
  
  

Under such conditions, dependence on food imports transforms into a strategic vulnerability.

Indonesia and the Reality of National Food Security

Indonesia is home to more than 280 million people, with annual national rice demand reaching approximately 30–31 million tons. While domestic production remains relatively stable, reliance on a limited number of traditional food production centers—particularly Java—faces serious risks:

• Land conversion,
  
  

• Population pressure,
  
  

• Climate change and extreme weather anomalies (El Niño–La Niña).
  
  

Meteorological agencies and national food institutions have recorded that climate change has increased the risk of crop failure by 10–20% in traditional production centers over the past decade.

It is within this reality that the food estate program emerges as a geographic diversification of food production, rather than a complete replacement of existing systems.

Food Estate as Non-Military Defense Infrastructure

In modern defense doctrine, food security is categorized as a component of the non-military defense system. Many countries have adopted this approach:

• China secures strategic grain reserves sufficient for more than 12 months,
  
  

• The United States maintains substantial food reserves and agricultural subsidies,
  
  

• Russia has designated food as a strategic commodity in the post-Western sanctions era.
  
  

Indonesia has adopted a similar approach through:

• The establishment of new food production hubs outside Java,
  
  

• Cross-ministerial involvement, including the Ministry of Defense, to ensure logistical sustainability and production security,
  
  

• Strengthening national food reserves as a crisis buffer.
  
  

The involvement of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) in this context does not constitute the militarization of agriculture, but rather the safeguarding of national strategic projects with direct implications for state stability.

South Papua: A Strategic Location, Not a Coincidence

The selection of South Papua as one of the food estate locations is often misinterpreted as an exploitative project. In fact, the region possesses:

• Extensive flat land that remains underutilized,
  
  

• Relatively abundant surface water resources,
  
  

• A strategic position in eastern Indonesia, a region historically left behind in food development.
  
  

Geopolitically, eastern Indonesia holds strategic value in maintaining territorial integrity and national stability. Food-based economic development functions as:

• A mechanism to reduce inequality,
  
  

• A deterrent to social conflict,
  
  

• An instrument of national integration through welfare-based development.
  
  

Mitigating Global Crises and Protracted Conflict

Protracted war does not always manifest as direct military confrontation. Global crises may emerge in the form of:

• Food crises,
  
  

• Energy crises,
  
  

• Disruptions to international supply chains,
  
  

• Economic warfare and embargoes.
  
  

The food estate program serves as part of Indonesia’s national early warning system, with key benefits including:

• Maintaining domestic food price stability,
  
  

• Reducing exposure to global market volatility,
  
  

• Ensuring food availability during national emergencies.
  
  

Countries with stable food systems tend to demonstrate higher social and political resilience in the face of global crises.

Social Dimensions and Long-Term Development

Beyond its strategic function, the food estate program also creates opportunities for:

• The transfer of modern agricultural technology,
  
  

• Job creation in underdeveloped regions,
  
  

• Development of basic infrastructure (roads, irrigation, logistics),
  
  

• Integration of local communities into national value chains.
  
  

With continuous improvements in governance, this initiative can evolve from a food production project into a regional economic ecosystem.

Conclusion: Food Estate as an Investment in National Security

Viewing the food estate program solely through an environmental or sectoral conflict lens represents a partial analysis. In today’s global reality, food is a national security issue.

The food estate initiative constitutes:

• Mitigation of protracted war risks,
  
  

• Anticipation of global crises,
  
  

• A long-term investment in Indonesia’s sovereignty and stability.
  
  

Implementation challenges undoubtedly exist and must be addressed. However, halting or delegitimizing this effort risks weakening Indonesia’s preparedness for an increasingly uncertain world.

Food security today is national defense tomorrow.